As we head into the winter months, coronavirus cases seem to be rising all over the world. How is this time different than last February, March, and April? What have we learned as a country?
Hear Barry and Steve’s thoughts as we look at the current state of the coronavirus and share our thoughts looking forward.
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“Not that we drop our guard and become flippant or unserious about how we approach it, but again, based upon what we know, I think we can move forward with a greater confidence that we’re gonna get through this.”
Transcript:
Steve Alverson, CFP®: Well, Barry we're about eight months into having to deal with COVID-19.
Barry McCall, CFP®: It seems like it years. Doesn't it?
Steve: Yeah, no kidding. Cases are spiking again. Germany has recently shut down again. What is different now, or what do we know now that is different from back in March?
Barry: Steve, that's a really good question, and I think there's a really good point in that. We do know things that we didn't know earlier in the year from a couple of different perspectives that I think we should give our clients a greater sense of hope in terms of what's going on. So I think number one, and most importantly, clinically the understanding of what the virus is and how to treat it is significantly greater today than what it was, you know. Just seven or eight months ago. The incidents of death, for example, and the severity of the cases, are significantly lower than what they were initially. Because, again, the healthcare professionals have learned how to treat this much better, I'll put it that way.
Second, from an economic standpoint, we faced the worst possible storm and saw the market's reacting and significant fear only to realize that it wasn't as bad economically as we thought it was going to be. Gosh, that's just so true about human existence. We always anticipate worst possible scenario. In reality, it’s never quite that way. So I think the second piece of that is while we understand the disease and the virus better, we understand how to treat it better. Not taking away the severity of it, but we understand how to treat it better.
Steve: Vaccines might be coming soon.
Barry: Well, we may or may not have a vaccine. Hopefully we will, but even if we don't, again the treatment modalities are significantly different today than they were in March.
Then, economically, what we've seen is the ability for companies in certain parts of the economy have adjusted and not just survived, but actually thrived through this. We saw a significant spike in unemployment, and that's been cut by more than in half from where it was before. We just had the second largest quarter of GDP growth in American history, outside of the ramp up to World War II, for the second quarter of this year. So that suggests that businesses are understanding how to adapt. I think the other thing too is that as we get further into this, it's been said that "we have to learn to live with the virus". And I believe there's some real truth in that, and that's not being flippant or calloused, but people are. I think you're seeing this in the larger populace that people want to get on with their lives, and they're willing to take the necessary precautions, whether it's social distancing, wearing masks, and sanitizers, et cetera, et cetera. To be able to go on with their lives, I think that is significant emotionally, for their emotional health physical health, and certainly for the economic health. I think those things are different now. Not that we drop our guard and become flippant or unserious about how we approach it, but again, based upon what we know, I think we can move forward with a greater confidence that we're gonna get through this.
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